Foresee RIN price changes

From Hoekstra RIN Price Outlook, April 20, 2026,:

D4 RIN Price Outlook:

The conflict in Iran caused high volatility of diesel prices, feedstock prices, and RIN prices in the first quarter, with the theoretical D4 RIN price finishing at the low end of our 2026 forecast range. 

The market D4 RIN price, in contrast, increased steadily throughout the quarter, which resulted in a finish well above the upper range of the forecast.

The current large separation between theoretical and market prices suggests there will be downward pressure on the D4 RIN as things play out in 2026.

High volatility of diesel and biofuel prices, combined with the large volume mandate increase, means it will take months for the market D4 RIN to find an equilibrium level reflecting new fundamentals. Historically, when there has been large separation between market and theoretical RIN prices, it has taken a few months for the persistent attraction between the two to play out.

What does “playing out” mean?– Today’s high RIN price, combined with the attractive Pbbd-Pulsd spread, provides a large incentive to increase biofuel supply. That incentive, combined with competitive market forces, will (somehow) pull supply through the biofuel supply chain, which has many moving parts and profit-seeking players. Increased biofuel supply will increase RIN supply, which will reduce the RIN price until the marginal biofuel supplier again breaks even at the new mandated industry supply level.

Will we hit a hard limit on industry supply capacity? I wouldn’t bet on that until it’s hit.

With current incentives, there will be “capacity creep”, where suppliers use creative ways to eke out more volume beyond known nameplate capacity limits.

My D4 forecast

The D4 RIN market price will move back down into the original outlook range during 2026.

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Hoekstra RIN Price Outlook 2026

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D6T: HOEKD4T1 INDEX

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