D3 RIN climbs
The gold line is the market price of the D3 cellulosic biofuel Renewable Identification Number (RIN), called Pd3, which has gone up from $2.39 to $2.66 so far this year.
The black line is Hoekstra’s theoretical price, called D3T, which has fallen from $3.32 to $2.96 so far this year.
The dashed lines show our original 2026 forecast as an expected range for the year, foreseeing a year end price between $2.71 and $3.02.
We do not change our annual RIN price forecast during the year. Instead, we continually analyze how the market prices compare to the theoretical price and to the year’s original forecast range.
The following excerpt from our January 2, 2026 quarterly outlook explains our bullish view on the D3 RIN:
“Our analysis suggests the market is, in effect, betting the EPA has given up supporting cellulosic biofuels for transportation for good. In that case, the D3 RIN would not need to subsidize sustained production or growth of that industry, and D3T would be irrelevant in the future. We see that bet as an over-read of the EPA’s recent easing of the cellulosic mandates. Accordingly, our outlook foresees upward pressure on the D3 RIN in 2026.”
Please consider purchasing Hoekstra RIN Price Outlook. It is issued quarterly. Here’s the offer letter.
George Hoekstra george.hoekstra@hoekstratrading.com +1 (630) 330 8159
