Posts by Hoekstra Trading LLC
The New Game of Renewable Fuels Part 3 – WHY Are The RFS Mandates Nested?
The spectacular increase in the price of the D6 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) in 2013 was one of the most extreme moves in the history of major commodity trading. Read the other blogs in this series, The Renewable Fuels Game: RINs are the environmental credits used to certify compliance with the U.S. federal Renewable Fuel…
Read MoreThe New Game of Renewable Fuels Part 2 – Principles 1, 2, and 3
The RIN is a game-changing environmental credit that is a tax, a subsidy, and a mandate, all at once. Read the other blogs in this series, The Renewable Fuels Game: 1) The RIN is a tax . . . . . . that is levied on petroleum fuels supplied by refiners and importers. 2) The…
Read MoreThe New Game of Renewable Fuels – The Rules Of The Game
The Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) caused many businesses to be thrust involuntarily into a new game. The game came with a new kind of environmental credit called the Renewable Identification Number (RIN), which has rules different than any other environmental credit. Read the other blogs in this series, The Renewable Fuels Game: People understand what…
Read MoreMid-year ATTRACTOR Update – D4 RIN market price diverges from D4T Theoretical Price, plus “Critique of the C-Suites”
The Attractor spreadsheet (chart below) shows the 2024-vintage D4 RIN market price (gold points) and the “D4T” theoretical value (white line), updated through last Friday. After converging near the end of 2023, the D4 RIN market price has again diverged from the Hoekstra D4T theoretical price in the first half of 2024. As of June…
Read MoreRevisiting RIN Cost Pass-through Part 4 – Will the Litigation Ever End?
See other episodes in this series: This four part blog series focuses on the flow of streams (white), RINs (blue), and dollars (green) depicted in Figure 1 below and has addressed 2 questions about it: The answer to the first question was given in Part 3 last week. There is no fundamental difference because the…
Read MoreRevisiting RIN Cost Pass-through Part 3 – The RIN Tax Does Not Affect A Refiner’s Profits
Read other blogs in this series: Last week’s Part 2 of this series posed this question: In terms of the pass-through question, how is the RIN tax situation (Figure 1) different than when a sales tax is imposed on finished gasoline? Figure 1 Flow of streams (white), RINs (blue) and dollars (green) in the market…
Read MoreRevisiting RIN Cost Pass-through – Part 2 – How is the RIN tax different than a sales tax?
Read other blogs in this series: Part 1 – Two Camps Part 2 – How is the RIN Tax Different From a Sales Tax? Part 3 – The RIN Tax Passes Through Just Like a Sales Tax Part 4 – Will the Litigation Ever End? Figure 1 shows refiners buying crude oil and making gasoline…
Read MoreRevisiting RIN Cost Pass-through – Part 1, Two Camps
See other episodes in this series: A Renewable Identification Number (RIN) is a tax and a subsidy that forces renewables into fuels. There is a long-running controversy over how the RIN tax affects the profits of refiners. One camp, which we call Camp A, says the RIN tax is an extra cost that hurts the…
Read MoreAll Eyes On Renewable Diesel – Part 5, Hard Numbers On RD Margins
Get the Attractor spreadsheet Read other posts in this series: All Eyes on Renewable Diesel Margins: Summarizing this 5-week blog series and its companion series, Upside Down on RBN Energy (watch for part 3 of that soon): In April, 2021: In April, 2023: The subsidies went down by $2.30 (!!) Why did the subsidy go…
Read MoreAll Eyes on Renewable Diesel Margins – Part 4, What Caused the $1.70 Crash in RD RIN value?
Get the Attractor spreadsheet The headline story in this quarter’s renewable diesel producer’s earnings reports was again renewable diesel (RD) margin. The effects of feedstock prices, lags in supply chains, and delayed plant startup schedules were again discussed in depth. Read other posts in this series: All Eyes on Renewable Diesel Margins: The humongous $1.70…
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