Posts by Hoekstra Trading LLC
What’s the Next Big Move for the D4 RIN?
Darling Ingredients is one of many biofuels companies whose stock price correlates with the price of the D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) environmental credit as shown on this 5-year chart. The D4 RIN is a complex credit. It is a tax, a subsidy, a mandate, an asset that can be bought, sold, banked, borrowed, and…
Read MoreA earnings surprise in the oil refining industry
In answering Jason Gabelman’s question in an April 28, 2026 quarterly earnings conference call: “How have massive dislocations in the market changed how you think about investment opportunities and how you run the business in the medium term?” — Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen Research the Chief Executive Officer’s response included: “As the hydrocarbon prices have…
Read MorePhillips 66 Renewable Diesel Running Above Nameplate Capacity
“Would it be fair to say year-over-year, you could see a material free cash flow inflection in your renewable diesel business?” — Manav Gupta, UBS Investment Bank Research “Well, absolutely. Even if you just think about the RINs, Manav, the current blended RIN is more than twice what it was in 2025. So just a…
Read MoreRIN Price Outlook – D3 RIN Will Rise
The gold line (Pd3) is the market price of the current vintage D3 Cellulosic Biofuel Renewable Identification Number (RIN) which went up $0.03/ethanol equivalent gallon (EEG) from $2.39 to $2.42 in the first quarter of 2026. The black line is Hoekstra Trading’s theoretical price (D3T), which fell $0.28/EEG from $3.32 to $3.04 in the first…
Read MoreRIN Price Outlook — D4 RIN Will Fall
The gold line is the market price of the current vintage D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) which went up from $1.09 to $1.75 in the first quarter of 2026. The black line is Hoekstra Trading’s theoretical price (D4T), which fell from $1.24 to $0.95 in the first quarter. The dashed lines show our original 2026…
Read MoreTop 3 Takeaways – Bloomberg Farm, Food and Fuels Summit 2026, Kansas City
Number 3) Confounding Complexity This conference, as the name implies, takes on the complexities of the farm, food, and fuels industries by covering the crude oil, corn oil, and chicken feed businesses, all at one event. Participants can choose among parallel breakout sessions and quickly learn about each industry, with its own deep knowledge base…
Read MoreWhat Happened to the D4 RIN Price?
In the last 2 weeks, Hoekstra’s D4 RIN theoretical price (named D4T) has fallen by 44 cents, from $1.45 to $1.01 per RIN, while the market price of the 2026-vintage D4 RIN fell by 9 cents, from $1.61 to $1.52. In analyzing this difference, the first key point is that the ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD)…
Read MoreTop 3 Takeaways from National Ethanol Conference, Orlando Feb. 24-26, 2026
My Top 3 Takeaways: Number 3 — California’s Ethanol Awakening 87-octane E15 gasoline, containing 15% ethanol, is now a legal fuel in California. Expect it to soon become the state’s base fuel, replacing E10 at a 45 cents/gal lower pump price. California has the nation’s highest gasoline prices and a history of driving out petroleum…
Read MoreHoekstra Trading D4 RIN Price Outlook 2026
D4T is Hoekstra Trading’s calculated theoretical value of the D4 RIN. At the start of 2026, D4T was $1.24 per ethanol equivalent gallon (EEG). D4T is compared with Pd4, our name for the market price of a corresponding D4 RIN, which was $1.10/EEG at the start of 2026. The outlook bands in Figure 1 show…
Read MoreA RIN Price Separation Scenario
In coming months, the D4 and D6 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices are likely to separate from each other. Several combinations of circumstances could cause this. What might that look like? This chart shows one scenario. In this case, a RIN system boundary is crossed, like when a flowing stream overflows its boundaries. The ATTRACTOR…
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