Posts by Hoekstra Trading LLC
What will cause separation of the D4, D5, and D6 RIN prices? Part 3 – D6 RIN pricing framework
In the U.S. biofuels market, it has become normal for the prices of three Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be the same. They are the D4 (biomass-based diesel), D5 (advanced biofuel) and D6 (conventional renewable biofuel) RINs. This equality is caused by special circumstances that have applied at times. The current question is what…
Read MoreWhat will cause separation of the D4, D5, and D6 RIN prices? Part 2 – The Big Bang and the Meiselman model
In the U.S. biofuels market, it has become normal for the prices of three Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be the same. They are the D4 (biomass-based diesel), D5 (advanced biofuel) and D6 (conventional renewable biofuel) RINs. This equality is caused by special circumstances that have applied at times. The current question is what…
Read MoreWhat will cause separation of the D4, D5, and D6 RIN prices Part 1 – Studying boundaries with ATTRACTOR
In the U.S. biofuels market, it has become normal for the prices of three Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be the same. They are the D4 (biomass-based diesel), D5 (advanced biofuel) and D6 (conventional renewable biofuel) RINs. This equality is caused by special circumstances that have applied at times in RIN price history. The…
Read MoreTop Three Takeaways – from the 2025 OPIS RFS, RINs, and Biofuels Forum, Chicago
Takeaway Number 3: Blurring Boundaries The rules of the renewable fuels game are increasingly being set more by politics and less by science and economics. The most direct evidence of this trend is the hijacking of a thermodynamic constant called the Equivalence Value for use as a political tool. The Equivalence Value is the ratio…
Read MoreAn Otherwise Unpublished Wall Street Journal Op-ed on Renewable Fuels
This Editorial from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal is titled : The Wrong Way to Help Farmers – To ease tariff pain in the Farm Belt, Trump is doubling down on the ethanol mandate that will raise fuel costs for everyone else. It is a confusing editorial about a confusing topic. Let’s dissect its 3-part subtitle:…
Read MoreEconomics of Refinery Octane Part 2 – Today’s High Octane Values Mean Opportunities For Refiners
See other posts in this series, Economics of Refinery Octane: The last three years have seen historic changes in the U.S. octane market. The wholesale value of octane, the primary yardstick of gasoline quality and price, spiked threefold in July 2022, followed by another year of high and volatile values in 2023. The numbers for…
Read MoreTop 3 Takeaways from American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) Summit 2025
Number 3: 300 First Time Attendees! The halls were buzzing with 30-somethings (and some even younger delegates), 300 of whom were first time attendees. Many of them served as presenters and panelists while their graying mentors roamed around the rooms with microphones (Phil Donahue style), fielding questions from large audiences which included the panel members’…
Read MoreTop Three Takeaways – From EPA Decisions on Small Refiner Exemptions
Number 3: The Big Contradiction Remains Unresolved This decision is a “deal”, straight out of the textbook, “Trump: The Art of the Deal”. It is a compromise about the Big Contradiction. The Big Contradiction is that: while, These two things cannot both be true simultaneously. The “same cost for all obligated parties” position is based on…
Read MoreEconomics of Refinery Octane Part 1 – U.S. Octane Values 2016-2025
The last ten years have seen historic changes in the U.S. octane market. The retail value of octane, the primary yardstick of gasoline quality and price, has increased 5-fold. The wholesale value of octane has increased in the last 3 years, spiking threefold in July 2022, followed by another year of high values in 2023.…
Read MoreThe Octane Value of Ethanol Part 2 – Ethanol is an Outstanding Octane Additive
Most U.S. gasoline contains 10% ethanol. Among other things, ethanol is an outstanding octane booster. When considering the economic value of ethanol in gasoline, it is critical to properly account for its octane value. See other blogs in this series The Octane Value of Ethanol: The term “aromatics” is used to describe a petroleum-derived hydrocarbon…
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