Posts by Hoekstra Trading LLC

When testing catalysts, we always dedicate one of the four reactors to a reference catalyst sample, to determine the margin of error. For example, here is an excerpt from Hoekstra Research Report 2 showing results for the Albemarle KF767 reference catalyst in three different pilot plant runs testing diesel fuel desulfurization catalysts: Most often, the…

Six weeks ago, this comparison of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC – green) and Phillips 66 (PSX -red) 2021 stock price performance highlighted a striking difference: Since then, oil stocks have surged. Here is how the same chart looks six weeks later MPC and PSX have both increased 20%, relative to the base point on the…

One reason refiners want independent catalyst testing is they sometimes get burned by exaggerated vendor claims on catalyst performance. Here is one example from our six-year standardized multi-client catalyst testing program. CENTINEL and CENTERA In 2009, Criterion (now Shell Catalysts & Technologies) was promoting their new CENTERA catalysts for diesel desulfurization. CENTERA was Criterion’s fifth…

The Hoekstra IMS RIN price spreadsheet model accurately tracked the D4 RIN price during 2021. The green data points are the daily closing price of the 2021-vintage D4 RIN reported by Banyan Commodities.  The black line is the price calculated by the model using weekly data on biodiesel and ultra-low sulfur diesel (ulsd) prices. All…

Hydrotreating catalysts from 2000 to 2010: From 2000 to 2010, hydrotreating catalysts evolved in step-wise fashion, with dozens of new products claiming 20-80% higher activity.  Those who studied published data on these products found a mix of vendor pilot plant data, customer pilot plant data, commercial data, and anecdotes of varying quality.  Sorting through the…

By helping refiners take a fresh look at catalyst selection and make more informed decisions, we’ve helped them improve profit by $1 to $5 million annually per unit … and reduce procurement cost by typically 30%. Here are just a few examples*: Refiner Incumbent out Challenger in Issue Performance benefit Procurementsavings  CHS Inc. Criterion Albemarle Short cycle Cycle…

There was a large dispersion in the stock price performance of US refining companies in 2021. Calumet Specialty Products stock quadrupled. That is a special case, congratulations to them and their investors. Marathon Petroleum (MPC), shown in green below, is up 60% this year. Phillips 66 (PSX), in red, is up 1%. The S&P 500…

In the news today . . . I am hearing the crude oil from our strategic petroleum reserve will be exported to India because it is too high in sulfur to refine in the USA. What? Since when can’t Americans refine our own high sulfur crude? Not long ago, we imported as much high sulfur…

Anatomy, [ə’nadəme] noun – a study of the structure or internal workings of something The Irwin McCormack Stock (IMS) RINs pricing model is based on fundamental economic and asset pricing theory and has been proven to accurately model real-world D4 RIN prices. In 2020, Hoekstra Trading implemented it in a spreadsheet for use in analyzing,…

Today Phillips 66 (PSX) reported a realized refining margin of $8.57/barrel versus a market benchmark margin of $19.44/barrel. The ratio, called “market capture”, was $8.57/$19.44 or 44%: The data and calculation are shown nicely on this chart which PSX provides each quarter in their earnings conference call: The $8.57 per barrel realized margin was an…