Release of Hoekstra Research Report 11: The Tax-and Subsidize Interpretation of RINs

To order this report including 6 months of unlimited consultation by phone and E-mail please issue a purchase order using information in the Offer letter or contact George.hoekstra@hoekstratrading.com +1 630 330-8159 The tax-and-subsidize interpretation of RINs By George Hoekstra  / Hoekstra Trading LLC / 1 Contents 2       Summary. 2 3       The RIN as a tax. 5 3.1       …

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Surging sulfur credit prices

The price of Tier 3 sulfur credits has quadrupled in recent months as refiners scramble to balance the books on their obligation to meet the 10 ppm gasoline sulfur mandate on gasoline sold in the U.S. in 2022. Some refiners are making last-minute adjustments to reduce their gasoline sulfur in the 4th quarter — these…

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NEWS FLASH – Valero says the Tier 3 gasoline sulfur spec is constraining US gasoline supply and increasing gasoline price

In this morning’s 3rd quarter earnings conference call, Valero executives were asked about possible steps to increase U.S. gasoline supply and reduce gasoline price. Their answer confirms Hoekstra Trading’s predictions that the Tier 3 gasoline sulfur specification is causing reduced gasoline supply and high gasoline prices in the US. Here is that Q&A: Connor Lynagh,…

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The Big Bang Theory Part 1 – The surprising RIN price spike of 2013

Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) are credits used to certify compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) which requires certain minimum volumes of biofuels to be blended into fuels sold in the United States.  RIN credits come in different categories.   One category, code named “D6”, applies to the blending of corn-based ethanol into refined gasoline to…

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U.S. retail octane value hits all-time high

The retail value of octane, which has been increasing relentlessly, hit another all-time high of almost $0.15 per octane-gallon at the end of September. In units more familiar to refinery engineers, that’s $6.30 per octane-barrel! Much has been written about the causes of the increase. Hoekstra Trading attributes it to the $10 billion/year of octane…

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The octane-sulfur squeeze continues to constrain U.S. gasoline production and refining profits

An “octane-sulfur squeeze” is occurring in 2022 because refiners are desulfurizing gasoline more severely than in the past to comply with the new Tier 3 gasoline sulfur specification (10 ppm sulfur max). Higher desulfurization severity is reducing gasoline octane much more than refiners had been expecting which is causing product downgrades and lower production of…

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