Posts by Hoekstra Trading LLC
D4-D6 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Price Separation
The RIN system is a price control system that can be represented on a chart showing supply curves, demand curves, and constraints that form boundaries within the system. These curves and constraints can sometimes cause RIN prices to interact in peculiar ways that are predictable based on economic fundamentals. When a boundary is crossed, RIN…
Read MoreForesee RIN price changes
From Hoekstra RIN Price Outlook, April 20, 2026,: D4 RIN Price Outlook: The conflict in Iran caused high volatility of diesel prices, feedstock prices, and RIN prices in the first quarter, with the theoretical D4 RIN price finishing at the low end of our 2026 forecast range. The market D4 RIN price, in contrast, increased…
Read MoreRunaway – What’s Behind the Soaring Price of the D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN)?
The price of the D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit has increased 130% so far in 2026. This RIN is a U.S. federal environmental credit that functions as a subsidy for production of diesel fuel made from soybean oil and as a tax on production of conventional diesel fuel made from crude oil. The RIN…
Read MoreD3 RIN climbs
The gold line is the market price of the D3 cellulosic biofuel Renewable Identification Number (RIN), called Pd3, which has gone up from $2.39 to $2.66 so far this year. The black line is Hoekstra’s theoretical price, called D3T, which has fallen from $3.32 to $2.96 so far this year. The dashed lines show our…
Read MoreD3-D4 RIN Price Collision?
The red line is the market price of the D3 (cellulosic biofuel) Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit and the gold line is the market price of the D4 (bio-based diesel) RIN credit. These two RIN credits have been on very different paths and look about to collide for the first time. One implication of a…
Read MoreD3 Cellulosic Biofuel RIN Price Creeps Higher
The gold line is the market price of the D3 cellulosic biofuel Renewable Identification Number (RIN), called Pd3, which has has gone up from $2.39 to $2.54 so far this year. The black line is Hoekstra’s theoretical price, called D3T, which has fallen from $3.32 to $2.96 so far this year. The dashed lines show…
Read MoreWhat’s the Next Big Move for the D4 RIN?
Darling Ingredients is one of many biofuels companies whose stock price correlates with the price of the D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) environmental credit as shown on this 5-year chart. The D4 RIN is a complex credit. It is a tax, a subsidy, a mandate, an asset that can be bought, sold, banked, borrowed, and…
Read MoreA earnings surprise in the oil refining industry
In answering Jason Gabelman’s question in an April 28, 2026 quarterly earnings conference call: “How have massive dislocations in the market changed how you think about investment opportunities and how you run the business in the medium term?” — Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen Research the Chief Executive Officer’s response included: “As the hydrocarbon prices have…
Read MorePhillips 66 Renewable Diesel Running Above Nameplate Capacity
“Would it be fair to say year-over-year, you could see a material free cash flow inflection in your renewable diesel business?” — Manav Gupta, UBS Investment Bank Research “Well, absolutely. Even if you just think about the RINs, Manav, the current blended RIN is more than twice what it was in 2025. So just a…
Read MoreRIN Price Outlook – D3 RIN Will Rise
The gold line (Pd3) is the market price of the current vintage D3 Cellulosic Biofuel Renewable Identification Number (RIN) which went up $0.03/ethanol equivalent gallon (EEG) from $2.39 to $2.42 in the first quarter of 2026. The black line is Hoekstra Trading’s theoretical price (D3T), which fell $0.28/EEG from $3.32 to $3.04 in the first…
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