In recent weeks I talked with 12 refineries and 12 other sources who generate, trade, or quote prices for Tier 3 sulfur credits. The price going around the industry is $500 bid, $650 ask. I don’t believe that quote to be reliable. Here are 3 reasons First, there is no evidence you could buy a…

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US Refiners Behind Schedule To Meet Tier 3 Gasoline Standard Face Costly Adaptations At recent industry forums, refining process expert, George Hoekstra, presented a detailed argument that much work remains for US refiners to profitably meet the Tier 3 gasoline standard, which requires no greater than an annual average of 10ppm sulfur, beginning in 2020.…

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Polls taken at two recent web conferences show tightness in North American refinery octane supply. On July 29, 2020, in a web conference sponsored by RefComm, with 77 people present, 9 people responded as follows: 44% said their refinery is tight on octane, 33% said their refinery is not tight, and 23% don’t know. In…

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Without capital investment, octane loss can be made up other ways. Refiners who experience octane loss with Tier 3 will adopt various strategies to mitigate or replace lost octane:  •          Purchase alkylate •          Purchase toluene •          Purchase sulfur credits •          Downgrade FCC yields •          Downgrade reformer yields •          Downgrade gasoline streams •          Restrict gasoline end…

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How much octane will be destroyed when the heat is turned up on gasoline desulfurizers to make 10 ppm sulfur gasoline? This critical question was studied thoroughly in paper studies during development of the Tier 3 standard.  It was known this number would have big impact on the costs for Tier 3 compliance.  But the…

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After falling to 50% of last year’s level, US gasoline demand has picked up and is now approaching 70%. For the first time, all North American refiners will be challenged to make 10 ppm sulfur gasoline in 2020 or else pay for expensive credits. The excerpt below from our 3-year study tells how under-prepared refiners…

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