These questions were asked during recent industry conferences: Are there any services that are reporting Tier 3 sulfur credit market prices? Which is more critical for octane loss, percent desulfurization or absolute ppm sulfur in the product? •We use absolute sulfur •Because we know which sulfur compounds are the limiting ones •The ppms of those…

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In August 2020, sales of premium gasoline in the United States hit a three year high of 45.8 million gallons/day, the highest since the previous peak of 46.1 million gallons/day in August 2017. Premium gasoline sales have grown since 2007 in a seasonal pattern that peaks in August, shown here in gold in units of…

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In 2013, the price of D6 Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) skyrocketed sixty-fold (not sixty percent!) in weeks, triggering a financial crisis that rocked the US refining industry and is still making news today: The bright colored data shows the 2013-vintage D6 RIN (blue) price snapping up to a new relationship with the D4 RIN (green)…

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The 2013 D6 RIN boil over In 2013, the price of D6 RINs skyrocketed sixty-fold in a matter of weeks, triggering a financial crisis that rocked the US refining industry and is still making news today: The bright-colored data shows the 2013-vintage D6 RIN (blue) snapping up to a new relationship with the D4 (green)…

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In recent weeks I talked with 12 refineries and 12 other sources who generate, trade, or quote prices for Tier 3 sulfur credits. The price going around the industry is $500 bid, $650 ask. I don’t believe that quote to be reliable. Here are 3 reasons First, there is no evidence you could buy a…

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US Refiners Behind Schedule To Meet Tier 3 Gasoline Standard Face Costly Adaptations At recent industry forums, refining process expert, George Hoekstra, presented a detailed argument that much work remains for US refiners to profitably meet the Tier 3 gasoline standard, which requires no greater than an annual average of 10ppm sulfur, beginning in 2020.…

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Polls taken at two recent web conferences show tightness in North American refinery octane supply. On July 29, 2020, in a web conference sponsored by RefComm, with 77 people present, 9 people responded as follows: 44% said their refinery is tight on octane, 33% said their refinery is not tight, and 23% don’t know. In…

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Without capital investment, octane loss can be made up other ways. Refiners who experience octane loss with Tier 3 will adopt various strategies to mitigate or replace lost octane:  •          Purchase alkylate •          Purchase toluene •          Purchase sulfur credits •          Downgrade FCC yields •          Downgrade reformer yields •          Downgrade gasoline streams •          Restrict gasoline end…

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