Posts by Hoekstra Trading LLC
Top 3 Takeaways from National Ethanol Conference, Orlando Feb. 24-26, 2026
My Top 3 Takeaways: Number 3 — California’s Ethanol Awakening 87-octane E15 gasoline, containing 15% ethanol, is now a legal fuel in California. Expect it to soon become the state’s base fuel, replacing E10 at a 45 cents/gal lower pump price. California has the nation’s highest gasoline prices and a history of driving out petroleum…
Read MoreHoekstra Trading D4 RIN Price Outlook 2026
D4T is Hoekstra Trading’s calculated theoretical value of the D4 RIN. At the start of 2026, D4T was $1.24 per ethanol equivalent gallon (EEG). D4T is compared with Pd4, our name for the market price of a corresponding D4 RIN, which was $1.10/EEG at the start of 2026. The outlook bands in Figure 1 show…
Read MoreA RIN Price Separation Scenario
In coming months, the D4 and D6 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices are likely to separate from each other. Several combinations of circumstances could cause this. What might that look like? This chart shows one scenario. In this case, a RIN system boundary is crossed, like when a flowing stream overflows its boundaries. The ATTRACTOR…
Read MoreNew Hoekstra-Bloomberg Licensing Agreement
Hoekstra Trading LLC is pleased to announce the expansion of its Data Acquisition Agreement with Bloomberg Finance LP to now include the licensing of D6T, the theoretical value of the D6 Renewable Identification number (RIN). Under the agreement, Hoekstra will provide weekly D6T values along with the values of D3T (first licensed in 2024) and…
Read MoreWhat Will Cause Separation of the D4, D5 and D6 RIN Prices, Part 5 (final episode) – The ATTRACTOR RIN System Roadmap
See other blogs in this series: What Will Cause Separation of the D4, D5, and D6 RIN Prices? Part 1 of this series shows that Renewable Identification Number (RIN) price movements like the Big Bang are caused by boundaries (like the Blend Wall and the RIN Cliff) that don’t exist in free, uncontrolled markets. Part…
Read MoreWhat Will Cause Separation of the D4, D5, and D6 RIN Prices? Part 4 – The Next Big Move
In the U.S. biofuels market, it has become normal for the prices of three Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be the same. They are the D4 (biomass-based diesel), D5 (advanced biofuel) and D6 (conventional renewable biofuel) RINs. This equality is caused by special circumstances that have applied at times. The current question is what…
Read MoreWhat will cause separation of the D4, D5, and D6 RIN prices? Part 3 – D6 RIN pricing framework
In the U.S. biofuels market, it has become normal for the prices of three Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be the same. They are the D4 (biomass-based diesel), D5 (advanced biofuel) and D6 (conventional renewable biofuel) RINs. This equality is caused by special circumstances that have applied at times. The current question is what…
Read MoreWhat will cause separation of the D4, D5, and D6 RIN prices? Part 2 – The Big Bang and the Meiselman model
In the U.S. biofuels market, it has become normal for the prices of three Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be the same. They are the D4 (biomass-based diesel), D5 (advanced biofuel) and D6 (conventional renewable biofuel) RINs. This equality is caused by special circumstances that have applied at times. The current question is what…
Read MoreWhat will cause separation of the D4, D5, and D6 RIN prices Part 1 – Studying boundaries with ATTRACTOR
In the U.S. biofuels market, it has become normal for the prices of three Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be the same. They are the D4 (biomass-based diesel), D5 (advanced biofuel) and D6 (conventional renewable biofuel) RINs. This equality is caused by special circumstances that have applied at times in RIN price history. The…
Read MoreTop Three Takeaways – from the 2025 OPIS RFS, RINs, and Biofuels Forum, Chicago
Takeaway Number 3: Blurring Boundaries The rules of the renewable fuels game are increasingly being set more by politics and less by science and economics. The most direct evidence of this trend is the hijacking of a thermodynamic constant called the Equivalence Value for use as a political tool. The Equivalence Value is the ratio…
Read More