Archive for December 2023
Renewable Diesel In The News – Part 2, What The Investment Bankers Missed
This is Part 2 of a four-part series reviewing my notes from a December 15, 2023 presentation made by Scott Irwin, Professor of Economics at The University of Illinois, titled “The RFS, Renewable Diesel, SAF & the Future of Biofuels”. Read more blogs from this series: Renewable Diesel in the News: Part 1 provided some…
Read MoreHoekstra Trading Announces Hoekstra – Bloomberg Licensing Agreement
Hoekstra Trading is pleased to announce it has entered a data acquisition agreement with Bloomberg Finance LP that grants Bloomberg a license to use, display, and deliver Hoekstra Trading’s “D4T” value to Bloomberg users starting January 1, 2024. D4T is the theoretical value of a D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) calculated weekly by Hoekstra Trading…
Read MoreRenewable Diesel In The News – Part 1, Two Ways To Skin A Fat
Last week, Scott Irwin, Professor and Laurence J Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at University of Illinois, presented “The RFS, Renewable Diesel, SAF & the Future of Biofuels” at the 2023 Farm Assets Conference in Champaign, Illinois. His assignment from The Management was to explain this topic in 30 minutes or less. Read other blogs…
Read MoreD4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Theoretical Price Drops To 66 cents
The Attractor RIN price model is a spreadsheet that calculates the theoretical value of the D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) using Hoekstra Trading’s spreadsheet application of the Irwin-McCormack-Stock (IMS) pricing model and our best estimates of the values of the fundamental economic variables that determine the D4 RIN value. Figure 1. Attractor D4 RIN Price…
Read MoreWelcome to the Future – Part 2 – High cost of gasoline sulfur specification draws attention from refiners and financial analysts
The price of the Tier 3 gasoline sulfur credit hit $3,600 in October, up by a factor of 10 since 2022. The high price of this credit is a direct indicator of the true cost of compliance with the Tier 3 gasoline sulfur standard and has raised attention recently in refining and financial circles. In today’s…
Read MoreRIN Price Nosedive Part 5 – Dissecting The 2023 RIN Price Nosedive
The ATTRACTOR RIN price model is a spreadsheet that calculates the theoretical value of the D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) and enables users to study theoretical vs. market RIN prices. The theoretical value is calculated using Hoekstra Trading’s spreadsheet application of the Irwin-McCormack-Stock (IMS) pricing model which is based on fundamental economic theory. Read other…
Read MoreRIN Price Nosedive Part 4 – A Nosedive Is One Thing, A Cliff Is Another
In theory, a higher price for a commodity will attract new suppliers into the market who would not be profitable at a lower price. For that reason, a chart of “supply price” versus “quantity supplied” is upward sloping from left to right. Conversely, a higher price will chase away some consumers for whom the product…
Read MoreRIN Price Nosedive Part 3 – It WAS Foreseen, It’s Cause Was COMPETITION, And It WILL Continue
From January 2023, Hoekstra Trading clients were analyzing and acting on the growing gap between the D4 RIN theoretical value and its quoted market price. Starting in February, a series of 12 articles on renewable diesel supply was published by University of Illinois economists with quantitative supply/demand analyses and explanations of the theory behind a…
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