Archive for May 2026
D3-D4 RIN Price Collision?
The red line is the market price of the D3 (cellulosic biofuel) Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit and the gold line is the market price of the D4 (bio-based diesel) RIN credit. These two RIN credits have been on very different paths and look about to collide for the first time. One implication of a…
Read MoreD3 Cellulosic Biofuel RIN Price Creeps Higher
The gold line is the market price of the D3 cellulosic biofuel Renewable Identification Number (RIN), called Pd3, which has has gone up from $2.39 to $2.54 so far this year. The black line is Hoekstra’s theoretical price, called D3T, which has fallen from $3.32 to $2.96 so far this year. The dashed lines show…
Read MoreWhat’s the Next Big Move for the D4 RIN?
Darling Ingredients is one of many biofuels companies whose stock price correlates with the price of the D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) environmental credit as shown on this 5-year chart. The D4 RIN is a complex credit. It is a tax, a subsidy, a mandate, an asset that can be bought, sold, banked, borrowed, and…
Read MoreA earnings surprise in the oil refining industry
In answering Jason Gabelman’s question in an April 28, 2026 quarterly earnings conference call: “How have massive dislocations in the market changed how you think about investment opportunities and how you run the business in the medium term?” — Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen Research the Chief Executive Officer’s response included: “As the hydrocarbon prices have…
Read MorePhillips 66 Renewable Diesel Running Above Nameplate Capacity
“Would it be fair to say year-over-year, you could see a material free cash flow inflection in your renewable diesel business?” — Manav Gupta, UBS Investment Bank Research “Well, absolutely. Even if you just think about the RINs, Manav, the current blended RIN is more than twice what it was in 2025. So just a…
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