What Happened to the D4 RIN Price?
In the last 2 weeks, Hoekstra’s D4 RIN theoretical price (named D4T) has fallen by 44 cents, from $1.45 to $1.01 per RIN, while the market price of the 2026-vintage D4 RIN fell by 9 cents, from $1.61 to $1.52.
In analyzing this difference, the first key point is that the ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) market price increased by $1/gal during those 2 weeks. Currently, the theoretical sensitivity of D4T to a 1-cent increase in the price of ultra-low sulfur diesel is negative 1/2-cent per RIN — so the $1.00 increase in the ULSD price caused a 50-cent decrease in D4T.
The prices of soybean oil and used cooking oil also increased. All Hoekstra Trading clients also know the theoretical sensitivity of that factor. Directionally, it partially offset the negative impact of the increased ULSD price.
Similarly, the other factors that affect D4T have sensitivity coefficients based on economic theory. Those factors were also updated, and the end result was that, in the last 2 weeks, the theoretical price fell by 44 cents.
Why was there such a large difference in the sensitivities of theoretical and market prices in the last 2 weeks? We can only conjecture. That’s because, while we know exactly why D4T fell by 44 cents, we have only educated guesses on why the market price fell by only 6 cents.
D4T is the theoretical price posted on the Bloomberg terminal for comparison with market prices. It was developed by top U.S. economics professors and has been proven to track actual market prices better than any other available RIN price model. Do you see how knowing how the various changing factors affect RIN prices each week is helpful to those involved in the RINs markets?
On April 20, 2026, Hoekstra Trading will release the 2nd quarterly issue of the “Hoekstra RIN Price Outlook”. Why not have a look under the hood?
