Top 3 Takeaways from National Ethanol Conference, Orlando Feb. 24-26, 2026
My Top 3 Takeaways:
Number 3 — California’s Ethanol Awakening
87-octane E15 gasoline, containing 15% ethanol, is now a legal fuel in California. Expect it to soon become the state’s base fuel, replacing E10 at a 45 cents/gal lower pump price.
California has the nation’s highest gasoline prices and a history of driving out petroleum refineries (California’s refinery count fell from 47 in 1982 to 7 today). They are now in a tenuous supply situation.
The tide has turned on sentiment, from a historical animosity to a hunger for ethanol’s practical and economic benefits.
This year, California will join other states in proving all the old barriers to E15 adoption have been overcome.
Number 2 — Breaking News on Renewable Fuels Regulations
On Feb 25, 2026, Aaron Szabo, EPA’s Administrator of the Office of Air and Radiation, announced from the NEC conference podium in Orlando that EPA had just submitted the long-awaited 2026 and 2027 renewable volume obligations to the White House Office of Management and Budget.
Almost simultaneously, Reuters reported EPA would reallocate at least least 50% of the recently allowed old small refiner exemptions, to be covered in future years.
These two announcements are both important to renewable fuel enthusiasts. They created stirs in the auditorium, hallways and markets, even though neither announcement was really a surprise.
Number 1 — Ethanol Unleashed
Geoff Cooper’s annual State of the Industry speech (watch the replay here) began with the story of an athlete unleashed. That athlete is someone you know if you follow sports. That athlete’s story demonstrates how superior results are realized when overlooked potential is finally unleashed through relentless determination.
The meeting’s slogan, ethanol unleashed, indicates the analogy with ethanol’s position in the U.S. fuels picture. Geoff Cooper’s speech includes facts and statistics to make the case for ethanol’s overlooked potential and points to the relentless determination of its advocates to realize that potential, which has long been held back by outdated regulations and obstructed by entrenched petroleum refiners who continue to block larger volumes of low-cost ethanol from reaching consumers.
Personally, I am a recent convert to the ethanol unleashed theme because of ethanol’s inherent technical and economic benefits which, like that athlete, have been vastly under-appreciated. Even on an energy-equivalent basis, ethanol is an outstanding gasoline component whose full economic potential has not yet been realized.
And I accept another assertion made during the Orlando proceedings, that we are near the point where the last remaining obstruction will be broken through and the floodgates will open in realizing the full technical and economic benefits of higher-ethanol gasoline blends.
George Hoekstra
Hoekstra Trading LLC
george.hoekstra@hoekstratrading.com
+1 630 330-8159
