Hoekstra Trading D4 RIN Price Outlook 2026

D4T is Hoekstra Trading’s calculated theoretical value of the D4 RIN. At the start of 2026, D4T was $1.24 per ethanol equivalent gallon (EEG).

D4T is compared with Pd4, our name for the market price of a corresponding D4 RIN, which was $1.10/EEG at the start of 2026. 

The outlook bands in Figure 1 show Hoekstra’s expected 2026 price range for the 2026 vintage D4 RIN. Our expectation is its market price will be between $0.85 and $1.63 at the end of Jan 1, 2027. This expectation includes an imposed upward bias that assumes a portion of the current difference between D4T and Pd4 will be made up gradually during 2026.

The outlook bands define a 95% likelihood range for D4T, assuming the underlying biofuel and diesel prices follow normal distributions with variances equal to those of the most recent 20 weeks.  The range also includes an imposed upward bias that assumes a portion of the Jan 2, 2026 difference between D4T and Pd4 is made up gradually during 2026.

Hoekstra Trading does not predict absolute future values of D4T. Doing so necessarily requires predicting the prices of commodities we consider to be unpredictable random variables.  Accordingly, our RIN outlook bands do not depend (either explicitly or implicitly) on predictions of ethanol, refinery gasoline, natural gas, diesel fuel, soybean oil, corn, or other biofuel feedstock prices that directly affect RIN prices. Our outlook bands only factor in the measured historical variances of those unpredictable prices.  

Renewable fuel market participants and investors should be aware that any absolute RIN price forecast requires, either explicitly or implicitly, forecasts of unpredictable commodity prices.  No absolute RIN price forecast is better than that forecaster’s prediction of the underlying  unpredictable prices. 

Our method confronts this reality by separating and quantifying the predictables from the unpredictables, leading to better visibility, awareness and management of forecasting risks that have burned many renewable fuel investors in the past.

What is predictable and what is unpredictable? Sensitivities of RIN prices to random variables are predictable based on fundamental economic theory. Macro variances of RIN prices are much more predictable than micro variances. What does that mean? For example, suppose a friend is planning an outdoor wedding in Chicago next spring and demands that you, as a weather enthusiast, forecast for him whether it will rain on April 11, 2026. A good answer would be, “I can’t predict whether it will rain on April 11, but you should expect it is much less likely to rain on June 11 than April 11 and, from a weather standpoint, you’d be better off to schedule the wedding for June 11”.

D4T is calculated using fundamental economic models published by Scott Irwin, Kristen McCormack, and James H. Stock, and by Ben Meiselman. D4T is the world’s first licensed theoretical value of an environmental credit, having been licensed since 2023 to Bloomberg Finance LP for display on the Bloomberg Terminal, for reporting, research, and for use throughout Bloomberg’s worldwide media operations.

Recommendation

If RIN prices are important to you or your business, you should get the ATTRACTOR spreadsheet! Get Hoekstra Research Report 10 and the ATTRACTOR spreadsheet

Get the Attractor spreadsheet, it is included with Hoekstra Research Report 10 and is available to anyone at negligible cost.

George Hoekstra

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