RIN Price Outlook – D3 RIN Will Rise
The gold line (Pd3) is the market price of the current vintage D3 Cellulosic Biofuel Renewable Identification Number (RIN) which went up $0.03/ethanol equivalent gallon (EEG) from $2.39 to $2.42 in the first quarter of 2026. The black line is Hoekstra Trading’s theoretical price (D3T), which fell $0.28/EEG from $3.32 to $3.04 in the first quarter.
The dashed lines show our original 2026 forecast as an expected range for the year.
Unlike the D4 RIN, the conflict in Iran had little impact on either the theoretical or the market D3 RIN price because it had little impact on the prices of either U.S. natural gas or renewable natural gas which are the two primary commodity prices that affect the theoretical D3 RIN value.
The main factor affecting the theoretical price of the D3 RIN this quarter was the changing value of the non-RIN credit, which is the sum of other credits (other than the RIN) earned by renewable natural gas. The non-RIN credit trended up this quarter, which caused a decrease in D3T.
We do not change our annual RIN price forecasts during the year. Instead, we continually analyze how the market prices compare to the theoretical prices and to the year’s original forecast ranges. The market price of the D3 RIN is far below the theoretical price and near the low of the forecast range.
We believe the current D3 RIN price is not a true market price. Instead, it is a price that assumes, with 100% probability, that EPA will waive the cellulosic mandates or cap the D3 RIN price whenever a shortfall in cellulosic biofuel production is foreseen, which is how things happened before 2023.
That is one possible scenario. But to assume that will happen with certainty in the future is risky.
If you instead assume a non-zero probability EPA will let the D3 RIN float to a true market price, as it is designed to do, then you get a higher RIN price.
The theoretical price, D3T, is our estimate of what it would be if it were allowed to float.
Accordingly, our outlook is that the D3 RIN will continue to increase in 2026.
Our outlook is that the D3 RIN will continue to increase in 2026.
On April 20, 2026, Hoekstra Trading released the 2nd quarterly issue of the “Hoekstra RIN Price Outlook”. Why not have a look under the hood?
