RIN Price Outlook — D4 RIN Will Fall
The gold line is the market price of the current vintage D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) which went up from $1.09 to $1.75 in the first quarter of 2026. The black line is Hoekstra Trading’s theoretical price (D4T), which fell from $1.24 to $0.95 in the first quarter.
The dashed lines show our original 2026 forecast. Note that the forecast is not a single curve, instead it is two curves that define the original forecasted range for the year. The use of a range instead of a single curve recognizes that future RIN prices depend partly on commodity prices that are inherently unpredictable, like the prices of crude oil, diesel fuel, and soybeans. Instead of predicting those unpredictable prices, we represent them by probability distributions with known historical volatilities– hence the forecast is a range.
In the first quarter, the conflict in Iran caused unusually high volatility of those underlying commodity prices which is reflected in the swings in the theoretical black curve. Superimposed on that price shock was anticipation of the release of the final renewable volume mandate levels for 2025, 2026, and 2027.
We do not change our annual forecast during the year. Instead, we continue to analyze how the actual market price compares to our original forecast range as the year progresses.
Currently, the theoretical price (D4T, black) is at the low end of that range, and the market price, (Pd4, gold) is well above the upper end.
There is a new reality, with huge incentive to increase the production of advanced biofuels. The supply chain is complex, with many moving parts. How it will respond is uncertain. But it will respond. It will respond with higher production of advanced biofuels and RINs. Our assessment is that the D4 RIN market price will fall back into the original forecasted range as the market responds to the new reality during 2026.
Our assessment is that the D4 RIN market price will fall back into the original forecasted range as the market responds to the new reality during 2026.
George Hoekstra, Apr 30, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Hoekstra Trading released the 2nd quarterly issue of the “Hoekstra RIN Price Outlook”. Why not have a look under the hood?
