A RIN Price Separation Scenario

In coming months, the D4 and D6 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices are likely to separate from each other. Several combinations of circumstances could cause this. What might that look like?

This chart shows one scenario. In this case, a RIN system boundary is crossed, like when a flowing stream overflows its boundaries. The ATTRACTOR spreadsheet model is used to calculate and chart the RIN price responses, with the dashed extensions showing the responses to that particular boundary crossing. As shown, the D4 and D6 RINs both fall over a period of a few months, with the D6 RIN falling faster.

The effects on the prices of biodiesel, ethanol, refinery gasoline, and E10 (10% ethanol), and the effects on the production rates of those streams are also calculated.

Like the Big Bang of 2013 (which launched the price of the D6 RIN by 100-fold), and the RIN Cliff of 2023, (which crashed the D4 RIN to 1/4 its value), and like several other less spectacular historical RIN price shocks, the coming D4-D6 price separation and its consequences are foreseeable based on fundamental economics as expressed in the ATTRACTOR spreadsheet.

Our ATTRACTOR spreadsheet uses the best available fundamental models of the RIN system to enable simulation of these RIN price events. They were developed in the academic world and have been proven far superior to any other methods for anticipating and forecasting RIN prices. If your business is affected by RIN prices, you should be using ATTRACTOR.

Recommendation

If RIN prices are important to you or your business, you should get the ATTRACTOR spreadsheet! Get Hoekstra Research Report 10 and the ATTRACTOR spreadsheet

Get the Attractor spreadsheet, it is included with Hoekstra Research Report 10 and is available to anyone at negligible cost.

George Hoekstra

+1 630 330-8159