Posts by Hoekstra Trading LLC
What’s Next For Cellulosic Biofuels and the D3 RIN? Part 3 – Rewind to the Fast Crash of Kior, a Cellulosic Biofuel Company
Read other posts in this series: What’s next for cellulosic biofuels and the D3 RIN? In 2007, a primary objective of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was to stimulate development of at least 16 billion gallons/year of liquid fuels made from cellulosic biomass which consists of non-food crops and waste biomass like corn stalks, corncobs,…
Read MoreTD Cowen, Hoekstra Trading Discuss the ATTRACTOR Theoretical RIN Price Model
One year ago, in November 2023, Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen interviewed George Hoekstra of Hoekstra Trading on theoretical modeling of D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices using the Hoekstra ATTRACTOR RIN price model, watch this opening segment of that webcast: Recommendation Get Hoekstra Research Report 10 Hoekstra Trading clients use the ATTRACTOR spreadsheet to…
Read MoreHoekstra Trading releases Hoekstra Research Report 12 – Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Market Pricing Model
Hoekstra Trading today released its 12th annual research report titled Hoekstra Research Report 12 – Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Market Pricing Model. The report is available to anyone and includes a new user spreadsheet that calculates flow rates and prices of all fuels and RINs in markets affected by the RIN credit. In particular, this…
Read MoreWatch this short video on RIN Pricing and Economics
Please watch this short video to see the diagram that underlies the ATTRACTOR Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Price Model and the calculation of D4T, the world’s first licensed theoretical value of an environmental credit, which is available with weekly updates to Bloomberg Terminal subscribers. Coming Soon This video foreshadows what underlies Hoekstra Research Report 12,…
Read MoreThe 2024 American Fuel and Petrochemicals Manufacturer’s (AFPM) Summit New Orleans – My Top 3 Takeaways
Top 3 takeaways from 2024 AFPM Summit Number 3: Something doesn’t compute — My annual informal opinion poll at the Summit again showed that all U.S. refineries are “long octane”. Yet all other market indicators point to a shortage of domestically produced octane barrels, and the supply of banked sulfur credits just hit an all-time…
Read MoreUnder the Hood of the ATTRACTOR RIN Price Spreadsheet Part 4 – The Famous Burkholder Memo
See the other posts in this series: Under the Hood of the ATTRACTOR RIN Price Model: A landmark document in renewable fuels history is “A Preliminary Assessment of RIN Market Dynamics, RIN Prices, and Their Effects”, by Dallas Burkholder, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, US EPA, May 14, 2015. Soon after its release, it…
Read MoreUnder the Hood of the ATTRACTOR RIN Price Model Part 3 – A Thought Experiment on Profit Margins
See the other posts in this series: Under the Hood of the ATTRACTOR RIN Price Spreadsheet: The black arrows on Figure 1 show biodiesel and renewable diesel being blended with petrodiesel for sale into the wholesale diesel market. The blue arrows show Renewable Identification Number (RIN)s that, upon introduction to the fuel supply, are separated…
Read MoreUnder the Hood of the ATTRACTOR RIN Price Model Part 2- Why Renewable Diesel Margins Collapsed in 2023
See the other posts in this series: Under the Hood of the ATTRACTOR RIN Price Model: This short video shows how the ATTRACTOR spreadsheet calculates RIN prices with an example proving the RIN price crash of 2023 was factory-programmed into the design of the RIN price control system. Recommendation Get Hoekstra Research Report 10 It…
Read MoreThe 2024 OPIS Chicago Biofuels Forum – Top 3 Takeaways
The OPIS 2024 RFS, RINs & Biofuels Forum brought marquee names in the renewable fuels world to the platform again this year, drawing 250 delegates to Chicago. This annual conference is a good way to keep up on happenings in the biofuels industry.Below is the annual countdown of my top 3 takeaways from this year’s…
Read MoreUnder the Hood of the ATTRACTOR RIN Price Model Part 1 – How to Foresee Otherwise Surprising Price Behavior
See the other posts in this series: Under the Hood of the ATTRACTOR RIN Price Model: Hoekstra Trading’s ATTRACTOR spreadsheet was released in 2020. It uses this diagram of the diesel branch of the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) price control system. NOTE: THE NUMBERS SHOWN IN FIGURE 1 ARE HYPOTHETICAL. If you were a chemical…
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