Posts by Hoekstra Trading LLC
D4 RIN Price – What’s the Outlook for 2025?
September and October brought bullish predictions for the D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN). So far they have not played out. What’s the outlook for 2025? Bullish sentiment was in the air this autumn, when D4 RIN market prices rose into the high 70’s from a February low of 39 cents (much like happened with Chicago…
Read MoreWhat’s Next for Cellulosic Biofuels and the D3 RIN Part 6, Quantitative Theoretical Modeling of RIN prices.
Hoekstra Trading’s ATTRACTOR spreadsheet was released in 2020. It uses this diagram of the diesel branch of the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) price control system. NOTE: THE NUMBERS SHOWN IN FIGURE 1 ARE HYPOTHETICAL. If you were a chemical engineer looking at Figure 1, you would instinctively start drawing circles around the “units” and writing…
Read MoreWhat’s Next for Cellulosic Biofuel and the D3 RIN? – Part 5, Impact of EPA’s Partial Waiver on the D3 RIN Price
Read other posts in this series: What’s next for cellulosic biofuels and the D3 RIN? On December 5th 2024, EPA issued a proposal to partially waive the cellulosic biofuel volume requirement for 2024 from 1.09 billion to 0.88 billion Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). This requirement sets the minimum volume of annual supply of biofuels made…
Read MoreHoekstra Announces New Bloomberg Licensing Agreement – “D3T” Goes Live Dec. 9, 2024
Hoekstra Trading LLC is pleased to announce a new data licensing agreement with Bloomberg Finance LP that grants Bloomberg the right to use, display, and deliver Hoekstra Trading’s “D3T” value to Bloomberg users starting December 1st 2024. D3T is the theoretical value of a D3 Renewable Identification Number (RIN), an environmental credit that subsidizes supply…
Read MoreWhat’s Next For Cellulosic Biofuels and the D3 RIN Part 4 – Fueling Heavy Duty Trucks With Fuel From Cows
Read other posts in this series: What’s next for cellulosic biofuels and the D3 RIN? In 2007, a primary objective of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was to stimulate development of at least 16 billion gallons/year of liquid fuels made from cellulosic biomass which consists of non-food crops and waste biomass like corn stalks, corncobs,…
Read MoreWhat’s Next For Cellulosic Biofuels and the D3 RIN? Part 3 – Rewind to the Fast Crash of Kior, a Cellulosic Biofuel Company
Read other posts in this series: What’s next for cellulosic biofuels and the D3 RIN? In 2007, a primary objective of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was to stimulate development of at least 16 billion gallons/year of liquid fuels made from cellulosic biomass which consists of non-food crops and waste biomass like corn stalks, corncobs,…
Read MoreTD Cowen, Hoekstra Trading Discuss the ATTRACTOR Theoretical RIN Price Model
One year ago, in November 2023, Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen interviewed George Hoekstra of Hoekstra Trading on theoretical modeling of D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices using the Hoekstra ATTRACTOR RIN price model, watch this opening segment of that webcast: Recommendation Get Hoekstra Research Report 10 Hoekstra Trading clients use the ATTRACTOR spreadsheet to…
Read MoreHoekstra Trading releases Hoekstra Research Report 12 – Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Market Pricing Model
Hoekstra Trading today released its 12th annual research report titled Hoekstra Research Report 12 – Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Market Pricing Model. The report is available to anyone and includes a new user spreadsheet, ATTRACTOR 3.0, that calculates flow rates and prices of all fuels and all RINs in markets affected by the RIN credit…
Read MoreWatch this short video on RIN Pricing and Economics
Please watch this short video to see the diagram that underlies the ATTRACTOR Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Price Model and the calculation of D4T, the world’s first licensed theoretical value of an environmental credit, which is available with weekly updates to Bloomberg Terminal subscribers. Coming Soon This video foreshadows what underlies Hoekstra Research Report 12,…
Read MoreThe 2024 American Fuel and Petrochemicals Manufacturer’s (AFPM) Summit New Orleans – My Top 3 Takeaways
Top 3 takeaways from 2024 AFPM Summit Number 3: Something doesn’t compute — My annual informal opinion poll at the Summit again showed that all U.S. refineries are “long octane”. Yet all other market indicators point to a shortage of domestically produced octane barrels, and the supply of banked sulfur credits just hit an all-time…
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