Posts by Hoekstra Trading LLC
U.S. retail octane value hits all-time high
The retail value of octane, which has been increasing relentlessly, hit another all-time high of almost $0.15 per octane-gallon at the end of September. In units more familiar to refinery engineers, that’s $6.30 per octane-barrel! Much has been written about the causes of the increase. Hoekstra Trading attributes it to the $10 billion/year of octane…
Read MoreThe octane-sulfur squeeze continues to constrain U.S. gasoline production and refining profits
An “octane-sulfur squeeze” is occurring in 2022 because refiners are desulfurizing gasoline more severely than in the past to comply with the new Tier 3 gasoline sulfur specification (10 ppm sulfur max). Higher desulfurization severity is reducing gasoline octane much more than refiners had been expecting which is causing product downgrades and lower production of…
Read MoreHere’s how to reduce RIN costs by 25%
On December 14, 2021, Hoekstra Trading notified our clients of a RIN credit spread trading opportunity which is indicated by the gap between the dark green and light green data points on the right side of this chart: The opportunity was to sell the 2021 (light green) D4 RIN and buy the 2022 (dark green)…
Read MoreRIN Fundamentals — 20 FAQs
Recommendation Anyone with a stake in RINs pricing and economics should get Hoekstra Research Report 10 which includes the Hoekstra ATTRACTOR spreadsheet spreadsheet that accurately calculates D4T, the theoretical RIN price, tracks it versus quoted market prices, and predicts how RIN prices will change with the variables that affect them. Why not send a purchase…
Read MoreSecretary of Energy, oil CEOs discuss relaxing sulfur specs?
In Valero Energy’s earnings conference call yesterday, analyst Jason Gabelman asked about the June 23, 2022 meeting between refining executives and U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm on the possibility of fuel export bans and ways to increase domestic gasoline supply and reduce price. Here is an excerpt: Jason Gabelman, Director, Cohen All right. Were there any…
Read MoreA RIN is a tax and a subsidy that forces renewables into fuels Part 4 – A new perspective on RINs – the tax-subsidy interpretation
Summary This is a four-part blog series describing the renewable identification number (RIN) as a tax (part 1) and a subsidy (part 2) that forces renewables into fuels (part 3). This is part 4 showing how this tax-and-subsidize interpretation resolves the apparent contradiction at the core of the legal dispute over RINs which is now…
Read MoreA RIN is a tax and a subsidy that forces renewables into fuel Part 3 – How do RINs force renewables into fuel?
Summary This is a four-part blog series describing the renewable identification number (RIN) as a tax (part 1) and a subsidy (part 2) that forces renewables into fuels (this part 3), and how this tax-and-subsidize interpretation resolves the apparent contradiction (part 4) at the core of the legal dispute over RINs now in its 10th…
Read MoreA RIN is a tax and a subsidy that forces renewables into fuel – Part 2, the RIN subsidy
Summary This is a four-part blog series describing the renewable identification number (RIN) as a tax (part 1) and a subsidy (this part 2) that forces renewables into fuels (part 3), and how this tax-and-subsidize interpretation resolves the apparent contradiction (part 4) at the core of the legal dispute over RINs now in its 10th…
Read More30% discount on this summer’s catalyst testing program for gasoline desulfurization
Better gasoline desulfurization catalysts are available to increase production of marketable Tier 3 gasoline Seventy gasoline desulfurizers are in operation in the US today, and over 200 worldwide. Now is the time to focus on optimizing their octane/sulfur performance. For one thing, better catalysts are available that will deliver higher octane product with just a…
Read MoreA RIN is a tax and a subsidy that forces renewables into fuels — Part 1, the RIN tax
Summary This is a four-part blog series describing the renewable identification number (RIN) as a tax (this part 1) and a subsidy (part 2) that forces renewables into fuels (part 3), and how this tax-and-subsidize interpretation resolves the apparent contradiction (part 4) at the core of the legal dispute over RINs now in its 10th…
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