Posts by Hoekstra Trading LLC
Catalyst performance claims — perception or reality?
Hydrotreating catalysts from 2000 to 2010: From 2000 to 2010, hydrotreating catalysts evolved in step-wise fashion, with dozens of new products claiming 20-80% higher activity. Those who studied published data on these products found a mix of vendor pilot plant data, customer pilot plant data, commercial data, and anecdotes of varying quality. Sorting through the…
Read MoreWill you buy refining catalyst in 2022?
By helping refiners take a fresh look at catalyst selection and make more informed decisions, we’ve helped them improve profit by $1 to $5 million annually per unit … and reduce procurement cost by typically 30%. Here are just a few examples*: Refiner Incumbent out Challenger in Issue Performance benefit Procurementsavings CHS Inc. Criterion Albemarle Short cycle Cycle…
Read MoreRefining stock performance 2021
There was a large dispersion in the stock price performance of US refining companies in 2021. Calumet Specialty Products stock quadrupled. That is a special case, congratulations to them and their investors. Marathon Petroleum (MPC), shown in green below, is up 60% this year. Phillips 66 (PSX), in red, is up 1%. The S&P 500…
Read MoreWhat? We’re exporting crude from our strategic reserve?
In the news today . . . I am hearing the crude oil from our strategic petroleum reserve will be exported to India because it is too high in sulfur to refine in the USA https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/much-of-biden-s-oil-release-will-likely-end-up-in-china-india What? Since when can’t Americans refine our own high sulfur crude? Not long ago, we imported as much high…
Read MoreAnatomy of the IMS RINs pricing model
Anatomy, [ə’nadəme] noun – a study of the structure or internal workings of something The Irwin McCormack Stock (IMS) RINs pricing model is based on fundamental economic and asset pricing theory and has been proven to accurately model real-world D4 RIN prices. In 2020, Hoekstra Trading implemented it in a spreadsheet for use in analyzing,…
Read MorePhillips 66 3Q 2021 refining margin is still way low
Today Phillips 66 (PSX) reported a realized refining margin of $8.57/barrel versus a market benchmark margin of $19.44/barrel. The ratio, called “market capture”, was $8.57/$19.44 or 44%: The data and calculation are shown nicely on this chart which PSX provides each quarter in their earnings conference call: The $8.57 per barrel realized margin was an…
Read MoreUS gasoline pool was 8 ppm sulfur in 2020
We now know the complete story of the six year approach to 10 ppm sulfur gasoline in the United States. The headline 2020 number of 8 ppm is good news for regulators because it proves the feasibility of a safe landing at or below 10 ppm: It looks a bit more like a helicopter landing…
Read MoreStock investors — watch 3rd quarter refining margins
Investors and analysts are confused about how to interpret low refining margins being reported this year. My theory is the low margins indicate a fundamental weakness in the performance of many US refineries which is inability to make enough on-spec gasoline from crude; and that weakness was triggered by the Tier 3 ultra-low sulfur (10…
Read MoreFeedstock modeling for gasoline desulfurization
In Houston this week? Learn how refiners are using 21st Century analytical methods to make more high octane, low sulfur gasoline, at the Gulf Coast Conference. https://www.gulfcoastconference.com/presentationProfile.php?pid=7387&y=2021&r=bio&rid=7387
Read MoreTime to regroup on RINs
The refining industry has little to show for its investment in the 8-year battle to get relief on RIN costs. Though Big Oil is my career home, and refiners are my prime target customers, I must admit we seem over matched in this battle. It’s a familiar feeling for a fan of the Chicago Bears,…
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